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What's Ahead in Hotel Investment?

For most of us, the past tends to provide a context to project into the future. And while context is obviously important, it’s hardly a match for content. What, then, can we realistically expect from a lodging industry that is in such a state of flux on a number of fronts?

Indeed, 2002 didn’t paint a very encouraging picture: A wobbly economic recovery, an unsteady stock market, few property transactions, cautious lenders, very little M&A, soft retail pricing, aggressive wholesalers and on-line intermediaries, wavering consumer confidence, threats of terrorism and war, an impoverished airline sector on a reduced schedule, the great business traveler disappearing act, rising insurance and security costs and continued over-capacity.

But for those with an eye for the half-full, there are reasons to be faintly optimistic. Supply growth has slowed down significantly, setting the stage for strong occupancy and rate growth once the recovery gets going. Interest rates have dropped down into the bargain basement. Developers, bless them, have started to think of where and what would be the next best thing.

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